Compared with Johnsons previous low point in late 2015 and early 2016, the senator has increased his popularity with groups that lean Republican, lean to the right and were already supportive. These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. Compared with his peak in popularity in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 when his average favorability rating was plus 10 the downturn is notable. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. He assumed office on January 3, 2011. More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. Another factor that could affect the vote which bodes well for Republicans is the enthusiasm factor, which typically drives the turnout and can be critical in a swing state like Wisconsin. Independent Sens. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden. Approval Ratings (130) While the results are better for Evers than Johnson, and offer the best news for Michels and Barnes among the challengers, the difference in most cases does not surpass the 6.3% margin of error for the governors race and 6.4% for the U.S.Senator race. If youre running in a purple state and its a Republican year, none of that matters., Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. 2023 Morning Consult, All Rights Reserved. You must be an Urban Milwaukee member to leave a comment. Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. Also, a mix of both parties dominates the top of the list not just Democrats. Because Massachusetts is so blue, thats no big whoop in the Bay State but in reddish Florida, it denotes a talented politician with a lot of cross-party appeal. Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. Theres such a striking decline, and its a decline that has been sustained through 2020, 2021 and now into 2022. Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. It began in the age of enlightment (renaissance). Abstract The modern civilization is the antithesis of religious way of life. The Republican is currently seeking reelection to a third term, breaking a promise to serve no more than two. A 2001 industry survey conducted by ``Information Security,'' released on October 16, indicated that out of 2,100 respondents, an overwhelming 89% experienced virus, worms, or trojan breeches in the last three months. But what we cant be as confident about is whether its reversible.. Meanwhile, only about 1 in 4 Wisconsin Republicans (27 percent) strongly approve of Johnsons job performance, which is down 9 points since the first three months of his term. But a lot has changed in the last few months. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. Johnsons decline in popularity since 2019 has occurred among almost all groups. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs whether to run again, his embrace of Trump's anti-democratic campaign to overturn the election results already has angered some mainstream Republican allies, and is poised As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs future, Trump ties take a toll . Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (its +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. I'm not a polarizing figure at all. @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) But Democratic Gov. Independent Sens. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot,6 Republicans currently lead by 2.6 percentage points (45.5 percent to 42.9 percent). Kelly won by little under 2.5% in 2020, or about 2 points bigger than Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Arizona. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. Their four most vulnerable incumbents this fall Sens. Michels has quickly jumped to the lead in the Republican primary, with 27% of the vote versus 26% for Kleefisch, 10% for former Marine Kevin Nicholson, and 3% for Rep. Timothy Ramthun. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsin's Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. Contact Us, Take the next step, become a member. A Division of NBCUniversal. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. Senator Ron Johnson against his top challengers, which show Johnson a bit behind three of the four Democratic challengers, and a similar matchup of incumbent Democratic Gov. Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Wisconsin Democrats are eager to win back the Senate seat, which has been occupied by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson a top conservative foil and ally to former President Donald Trump since he . That may not look like anything special, but its actually quite impressive because Manchin is a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation (R+30). He welcomes comment at: drooks . Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. Mandela Barnes in a swing-state face off that could become one of the most competitive races of the midterms. January 25, 2022 at 12:01 am ET. Tired of seeing banner ads on Urban Milwaukee? But Kleefisch did the best of the Republicans in thehead-to-head matchup against Evers, with 43% of the vote versus 47% for Evers. Barnes had been a community activist after college, and served in the Wisconsin State Assembly before becoming lieutenant governor. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Become a member for $9/month. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. The Wisconsin Republican remains deeply disliked by his constituents. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for the purposes of these calculations. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. Phil Scott has not yet announced whether he is running, but it is expected that he will, as of May 12, 2022. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. Condition: --. and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Jones is a Democratic senator in R+27 Alabama, so hes fighting an uphill battle. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. But as Franklin points out, its really since 2019 that public opinion has grown markedly more negative and polarized over Johnson, and Johnson had already strongly aligned himself with Trump by then. If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. That gap is significantly bigger than it was from 2013 to 2019. RCP House Ratings, Map. Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. Partisan Lean (5). @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (63 posts) The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. In a June 2022 poll, 37% of voters viewed the senator favorably and 46% viewed . Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). Johnson, who is one of Trumps biggest supporters in the Senate, has come under fire in recent months for controversial remarks, including arguing Social Security and Medicare should be categorized as discretionary spending, spreading misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines potentially causing AIDS, saying he doesnt trust the FBI after it searched Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate last week, and sending text messages to aides revealed at the January 6 hearings indicating he wanted to hand-deliver fake electors to former Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 election. And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party. After about a three-year hiatus, FiveThirtyEights Popularity Above Replacement Senator and Popularity Above Replacement Governor ratings are back! Biden's approval rating rises to 45% from 36% in July. A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. Ron Johnson's approval ratings are underwater in a swing state that President Joe Biden won. Similar to a senators PARS score, a governors PARG score can also help us get a better sense of which governors running for reelection in 2022 are best equipped to swim against the partisan tide of their states. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. and Biden approval rating unchanged. The gap between how Republicans and Democrats view him was large then, but its even larger now. Buy It Now. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Membership, which includes a host of perks, including an ad-free website, tickets to marquee events like Summerfest, the Wisconsin State Fair and the Florentine Opera, a better photo browser and access to members-only, behind-the-scenes tours, starts at $9/month. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. Have questions? Bolded rows denote governors running for reelection in 2022.